433
FXUS64 KOUN 081138
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
CURRENT MID-LEVEL SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SPINNING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WESTWARD TO
NORTHWEST MEXICO. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
PRISCILLA OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALI SUR SURGES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
BRING INCREASING, BUT LOW (<20%) CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY
ACROSS OKLAHOMA, BUT WILL ALSO BREAK AND CLEAR OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT SWINGS
EASTWARD, THE SURFACE RIDGE ALSO EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY RETURN TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION HEATING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WHILE AREAS UNDER NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WITH A LONGER DURATION IN LINGERING CLOUDY COVER MAY REMAIN IN
THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER
BUILDS OVER TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. AN INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND/OR MIST. OTHERWISE, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS APPROACH
THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY SUNDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS SEVERAL WAVES PHASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND SLIDE THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INITIAL
WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH, TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER WAVE
REMAINS LOW WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
MORNING. A BREEZY AND WARM DOWNSLOPING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (KOKC AND
KOUN) AND COULD ALSO IMPACT KSWO, KPNC, AND KCSM (WHERE TEMPOS
WERE INCLUDED). STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING;
HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD IMPACT KWWR THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 60 83 60 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 79 59 86 61 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 62 85 60 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 57 84 61 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 58 82 59 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 85 61 83 56 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...10
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