421
FXUS64 KOUN 081750
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
CURRENT MID-LEVEL SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SPINNING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WESTWARD TO
NORTHWEST MEXICO. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
PRISCILLA OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALI SUR SURGES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
BRING INCREASING, BUT LOW (<20%) CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL ALSO FILL IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY
ACROSS OKLAHOMA, BUT WILL ALSO BREAK AND CLEAR OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT SWINGS
EASTWARD, THE SURFACE RIDGE ALSO EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY RETURN TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION HEATING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WHILE AREAS UNDER NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WITH A LONGER DURATION IN LINGERING CLOUDY COVER MAY REMAIN IN
THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER
BUILDS OVER TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. AN INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND/OR MIST. OTHERWISE, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS APPROACH
THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY SUNDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS SEVERAL WAVES PHASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND SLIDE THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INITIAL
WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH, TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER WAVE
REMAINS LOW WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
MORNING. A BREEZY AND WARM DOWNSLOPING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST
THROUGH 10Z. STRATUS EXPECTING TO INCREASE SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER 10Z LOWERING CEILINGS TO AN LIFR CATEGORY AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO AN MVFR CATEGORY BY 16Z. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOP AROUND 10Z REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THREE OF OUR TERMINALS IN CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO BE IN
A TEMPO GROUP. TERMINAL KDUA WILL BE THE ONLY UNAFFECTED TERMINAL
AND SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST UP TO 10 KTS. SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT &
VARIABLE AFTER 01Z THEN INCREASING MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS
AFTER 16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 62 83 61 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 79 60 87 61 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 62 87 60 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 57 84 62 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 59 83 60 / 10 0 10 0
DURANT OK 85 62 84 58 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
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