481
FXUS64 KOUN 082315
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT, MAINLY WEST OF I-35.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/STORMS TO RETURN ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
MIDDAY OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK WAVE WHICH HAS GENERATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALL MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE
TX PANHANDLE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS MADE IT INTO FAR WESTERN OK
AND WESTERN NORTH TX BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO OUR
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS WILL WANE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY,
AND AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED COOLER WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN THICKER, BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO MAKE IT INTO THE 70S BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN OK (WHERE GREATER INSOLATION IS
OCCURRING).
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MANY HI-RES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE OR
MOISTURE ADVECTION PRECLUDES MORE THAN PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SPOTS
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD EASTWARD TO FINISH OUT THE
WEEK, MARKING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 80S AREAWIDE, WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
OUR EAST AND LEAD TO FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT. THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF CURRENT TC PRISCILLA TO ADVECT TOWARDS THE REGION AND
INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, BUT SIGNIFICANT SPREAD EXISTS
CURRENTLY IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA ON AMOUNTS. AS OF NOW, THE GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN ARE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, BUT MUCH
OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND POSITION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW, MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY-TUESDAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST OK. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FORECAST REMAINS EVIDENT EARLY ON
THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DISSIPATING MID/HIGH-CLOUDS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
BY 08-09 UTC ON THURSDAY MORNING, EMERGING AREAS OF STRATUS (AND
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG) REMAIN FORECAST. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE FOSTERED BY WESTWARD ADVECTION OF A NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE PLUME
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ACROSS GUIDANCE IN HOW QUICK/HOW FAR WEST
THIS MOISTURE PLUME MAKES IT OVER THE COMING HOURS, AND HOW MUCH
(IF ANY) MIXING OCCURS.
GIVEN THIS SPATIOTEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO "IMPROVE"
CATEGORY SLIGHTLY, FROM WIDESPREAD LIFR TOWARDS IFR/LOW-GRADE
MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS. FURTHER REFINEMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
COMING UPDATES.
REDUCED CATEGORY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEREVER THE STRATUS AXIS DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A STEADY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZE.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 83 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 62 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 57 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 83 60 88 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 62 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09
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