221
FXUS64 KOUN 091145
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
- PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF
I-35.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS TO RETURN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS AS IT
AMPLIFIES ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. THE 700MB RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EXTENDING WESTWARD WITH A RETURN TO
WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AS THE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR A
STRATUS DECK OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING, MOSTLY ALONG OR WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A FEW
LOCALIZED AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP, BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AND
APPROACHING THE LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND SUBSIDENCE WILL GIVE WAY TO A HOT AND DRY START TO THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. RECORDS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AT ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE FORECAST HIGHS, WHICH ARE IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT WARM BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY, WHICH MAY
GRACIOUSLY GIVE SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS PUSHED EASTWARD OVER
OKLAHOMA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID-90S. THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. WIDESPREAD BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY BRINGS THE FRONT ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH
OKLAHOMA WITH COOLER POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
MONDAY AND WARM 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
LIFT AND MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PHASING
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THUS, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PRESENT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. MODEL
VARIATIONS IN HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEXT WEEK AND
STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF EACH WAVE WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
FRONTS (POTENTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES) AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DESPITE THE PATTERN CHANGE, HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN STORY AT THIS TIME
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
OVERNIGHT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS HAVE MORE OR LESS PLAYED NICELY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SPORADICALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, THE LOWEST VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS HAVE
REMAINED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW TRANSIENT SPOTS, MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHERE
WOODWARD WILL SEE THE THE STRONGEST WINDS, GUSTING TO OVER 20
KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 86 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 87 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 85 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 84 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 85 57 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...21
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