832
FXUS64 KOUN 091823
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
123 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 113 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS TO RETURN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
MORNING FOG HAS GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S ALREADY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST AREAS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT
LOOKS LOWER THAN THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT OUT WEST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY-SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH LOW 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN COLORADO.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND
MOISTURE MIXING OUT EACH AFTERNOON.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS PUSHED EASTWARD OVER
OKLAHOMA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID-90S. THE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. WIDESPREAD BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY BRINGS THE FRONT ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH
OKLAHOMA WITH COOLER POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
MONDAY AND WARM 80S TO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
LIFT AND MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PHASING
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THUS, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PRESENT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. MODEL
VARIATIONS IN HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEXT WEEK AND
STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF EACH WAVE WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
FRONTS (POTENTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES) AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DESPITE THE PATTERN CHANGE, HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN STORY AT THIS TIME
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
STRATUS ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE BUT
ITS LOW CEILING COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE TERMINAL KPNC TO AN MVFR
CATEGORY THROUGH 20Z AS A TEMPO IS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL KEEP
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BETWEEN 10-15 KTS THROUGH 00Z, THEN
BACKING SOUTHEASTERLY AND BECOMING LIGHT THROUGH 16Z. BY 16Z
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
10-15 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 61 89 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 62 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 61 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 58 84 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
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