151
FXUS64 KOUN 280351
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1051 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
- FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
- THE SEASON'S FIRST FREEZE FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
STRATUS PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA TODAY (AND THROUGH TONIGHT)
WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-60'S
TO MID-70'S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT E/SE WINDS.
LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT DEEPENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR CWA. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING WITHIN
THE NEAR- TO SHORT-TERM PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIME OF
ARRIVAL. WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER MODEL GUIDANCE. STRONG
NORTH WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT BEGINNING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN
ON TUESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW STRONG STORMS.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY MID- TO LATE-MORNING. THE FRONT EXITS OUR FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FROPA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID-50'S TO UPPER-60'S. TUESDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-30'S
TO LOW 40'S.
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW-50'S TO LOW-60'S. A FREEZE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE HIGH PROBABILITIES (60% TO 75%) OF REACHING THE
FREEZING MARK.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 30S, BUT SOME LOWER 40S REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) INDICATES A HIGH (>70%)
PROBABILITY FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND A MEDIUM-TO-HIGH (30-70%) PROBABILITY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A LOW (<30%) PROBABILITY FOR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE
CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL COME THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
CONTINUED BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY MORNING THERE REMAINS A LOW-TO-MEDIUM (20-40%) PROBABILITY OF
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN BEGIN TO WARM TOWARDS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR WITH AN INCREASE
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. CLOUDS MAY TAKE LONGER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MAINLY IMPACT OKC/OUN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT SURFACE WIND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO IMPROVE VISIBILITY WITH
CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 60 42 54 / 50 60 0 0
HOBART OK 53 63 40 59 / 30 30 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 68 43 61 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 46 56 35 54 / 60 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 52 58 40 53 / 40 70 20 10
DURANT OK 60 66 45 59 / 30 50 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...06
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