582
FXUS64 KOUN 281453
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND BLUSTERY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO WIND CHILLS.
- COLDEST NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF WIDESPREAD FROST
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING.
- NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA COULD SEE ITS FIRST FREEZE OF
THE SEASON ON THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS GIVEN THE
STRONGER CAA THAN PREVIOUSLY MODELED. THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING FOR SOME AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID-50'S OVER NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 50MPH ARE LASTING ROUGHLY AN HOUR OR
LESS FOR A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS ZONE OF
STRONG WINDS WILL PROGRESS INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND-DRIVEN RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG
THE FRONT WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED THROUGH MID-DAY, ESPECIALLY FROM PONCA CITY TO
ATOKA. STILL ANTICIPATE RAIN TO EXIT OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THOMPSON
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
TUESDAY WILL BE WINDY AND TURNING COOLER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN CHANCES AND A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
BLUSTERY COLD OVERNIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE PUSHING A
STRONG AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE
MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FALLING INTO A
WELL SATURATED AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD AIR COMING THROUGH
THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN A STRONG SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
COULD ALSO INITIATE A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
WHILE D-CAPE VALUES COULD SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE
DOWNDRAFTS. OVERALL ANY CONVECTION THIS MORNING COULD BE STRONG BUT
NOT A SEVERE RISK. ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE TO PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE VERY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER. IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 20-25 MPH
SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. BY LATE MORNING A NORTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DIURNAL HEATING COULD ENHANCE ANY DYNAMIC MIXING OFF THE SURFACE
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AT LEAST TO 925 MB ALTHOUGH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR 850 MB. AS A RESULT OF MIXING COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM
THIS CANADIAN-BASED AIR MASS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WILL BE FALLING IN THE 50S WITH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA IN THE 60S. THE UPPER TROUGHS AXIS SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING WITH COLD DRY AIR CONTINUING TO SURGE
FROM THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
COLDER AND WINDY UNDER THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST
OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE MEASURED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE 30S ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA AS IT WILL
FEEL MUCH COLDER. BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDSPEEDS AT
15-20 MPH WHICH COULD MIX HIGH ENOUGH FOR 20-30 MPH GUSTS.
WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING EVEN WINDIER DUE TO A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES AND HIGHER
MIXING (850 MB) INTO A STRONGER NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A
RESULT COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH PERHAPS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DID GO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
NBM FOR AFTERNOON WINDS USING THE CONSRAW GUIDANCE NUDGED 60%.
NORTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES SETTING
UP OUR AREA FOR A NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE 30S ACROSS ALL BUT SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO COLDER UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EXTENDING INTO
ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON ON THURSDAY MORNING. RECOVERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON
THURSDAY MORNING MAY ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH (ALONG WITH OTHER
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS MET) FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST ON GRASSY
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY KEEPING WINDS LIGHT
& VARIABLE BECOMING SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE DAY ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK BUILDING RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO
THE 60S ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY. A LONGER WAVE
TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE U.S. GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE DIGGING
THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY PUSHING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. MODELS DIVERGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH HINT THAT
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE DUE TO UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND WITH MILD YET ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A RANGE OF MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES WITH PATCHY FOG, LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST AND BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT DUA,
WHERE THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY
MID-MORNING. EXPECT POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. SOME OF THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TAPERING AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT, BUT REMAINING
BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 59 43 54 36 / 50 0 0 0
HOBART OK 61 42 59 33 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 45 62 36 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 55 36 55 28 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 43 54 36 / 80 10 0 0
DURANT OK 64 46 58 42 / 60 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...23
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