612
FXUS64 KOUN 281724
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND BLUSTERY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO WIND CHILLS.
- COLDEST NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF WIDESPREAD FROST
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING.
- NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA COULD SEE ITS FIRST FREEZE OF
THE SEASON ON THURSDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
TUESDAY WILL BE WINDY AND TURNING COOLER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN CHANCES AND A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
BLUSTERY COLD OVERNIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE PUSHING A
STRONG AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE
MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FALLING INTO A
WELL SATURATED AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD AIR COMING THROUGH
THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN A STRONG SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
COULD ALSO INITIATE A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
WHILE D-CAPE VALUES COULD SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE
DOWNDRAFTS. OVERALL ANY CONVECTION THIS MORNING COULD BE STRONG BUT
NOT A SEVERE RISK. ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE TO PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE VERY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER. IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 20-25 MPH
SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. BY LATE MORNING A NORTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DIURNAL HEATING COULD ENHANCE ANY DYNAMIC MIXING OFF THE SURFACE
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AT LEAST TO 925 MB ALTHOUGH SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR 850 MB. AS A RESULT OF MIXING COULD SEE WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM
THIS CANADIAN-BASED AIR MASS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WILL BE FALLING IN THE 50S WITH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA IN THE 60S. THE UPPER TROUGHS AXIS SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING WITH COLD DRY AIR CONTINUING TO SURGE
FROM THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
COLDER AND WINDY UNDER THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST
OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE MEASURED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE 30S ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA AS IT WILL
FEEL MUCH COLDER. BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDSPEEDS AT
15-20 MPH WHICH COULD MIX HIGH ENOUGH FOR 20-30 MPH GUSTS.
WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING EVEN WINDIER DUE TO A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES AND HIGHER
MIXING (850 MB) INTO A STRONGER NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A
RESULT COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 40 MPH PERHAPS IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DID GO SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
NBM FOR AFTERNOON WINDS USING THE CONSRAW GUIDANCE NUDGED 60%.
NORTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES SETTING
UP OUR AREA FOR A NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE 30S ACROSS ALL BUT SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO COLDER UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA EXTENDING INTO
ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON ON THURSDAY MORNING. RECOVERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON
THURSDAY MORNING MAY ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH (ALONG WITH OTHER
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS MET) FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST ON GRASSY
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY KEEPING WINDS LIGHT
& VARIABLE BECOMING SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE DAY ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK BUILDING RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO
THE 60S ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY. A LONGER WAVE
TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE U.S. GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE DIGGING
THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY PUSHING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. MODELS DIVERGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH HINT THAT
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE DUE TO UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND WITH MILD YET ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED MOST OF THE AREA AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME STRONGER BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS EXITING OUR EASTERN
SITES, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 40 54 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 41 59 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 35 53 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 41 54 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 45 59 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
050>052.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ004>019-021>024-027-033>039-044.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ083>089.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...08
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