687
FXUS64 KOUN 290715
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 208 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTH UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED.
- A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH/WEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT AND COOLER AIR HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO A CLOSED LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SWINGS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. AN STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO TEXAS BEHIND THE STACKED SURFACE
LOW. A NEAR 50-60 KNOT JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AS THE SUN
RISES, DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THESE STRONG WINDS TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE WITH SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
A RELAXATION IN THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 4AM THROUGH 4PM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THIS MORNING'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT QUITE REACH FREEZING,
HOWEVER BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO BRISK WIND CHILLS
IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE AREA. COOL POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, BUT
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE A CHILLY DAY.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
BY THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH LOWS TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 28 DEGREES
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. FROST WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME AREA, EXCEPT FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE DRIER AIR MAY KEEP CHANCES LOWER FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THURSDAY UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS POTENTIALLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA SATURDAY WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS LOW WITH THE FRONT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO TEXAS. A STRONG COLD AIR MASS IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SETUP AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS). THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS UNTIL SUNSET.
WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
TERMINALS TOMORROW (KPNC AND KSWO); HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 4000 TO 5000 FT.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 31 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 35 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 55 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 56 34 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 60 41 64 40 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>048-
050>052.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ004>019-021>024-027-033>039-044.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ083>089.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...10
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