176
FXUS64 KOUN 311711
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING NEXT
WEEK TO BEGIN NOVEMBER.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THE HALLOWEEN FORECAST IS MORE 'TREAT' THAN 'TRICK' FOR OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE SURFACE (AND UPPER AIR) PATTERN
REMAINS RATHER BENIGN, WITH A DISSIPATING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AND WEAK LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHILLY
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. EVEN WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING, SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL SATURATION IS ONGOING TO SUPPORT FROST FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS
FROST ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TOWARDS SEASONABLE READINGS (60S TO LOW-70S)
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE. COVERAGE OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS TRICK-OR-TREATING TIME THIS
EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY COOLING INTO THE 50S AFTER
SUNSET.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A QUICK-MOVING SURFACE FRONT WILL OFFER LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
FOCUSED DURING THE PREDAWN INTO MID-MORNING HOURS, MAINLY ALONG-EAST
OF THE I-35/44 CORRIDORS. MODELED VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER BELOW CLOUD BASE SUCH THAT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED IN NATURE. A LIGHTNING
STRIKE/RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL,
THOUGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS (IF AT ALL).
A COOL POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN THE 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
(LOW-60S ELSEWHERE).
SUNDAY WILL BE A "WARMER" (AND DRY) DAY, AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
COMMENCE AND A WARM LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS DOWNSTREAM OF A
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A WIDER PROFILE OF 70S ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH
TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALSO LIKELY, PROVIDING FOR A GREAT FALL
WEATHER DAY.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LOW-IMPACT AND WARM WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN
INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE GRAND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE POLAR JET DURING THIS TIME, AN EXPANDED
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL LIKELY DEFLECT PASSING SYSTEMS TO THE
NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW, WE LOOK TO RETURN
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL/MORE ATUMUN-LIKE WARMTH (70S TO LOW-80S) BY
MONDAY. DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK FRONT
WILL BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
BECOME BRIEFLY BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 58 35 64 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 44 62 35 70 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 66 38 71 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 36 55 35 70 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 41 56 32 63 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 49 65 37 66 / 10 20 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-026-030>032.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...14
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