882
FXUS64 KOUN 312343
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING NEXT
WEEK TO BEGIN NOVEMBER.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MAKE
IT UP TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. A COLD
WILL MOVE THROUGH STARTING LATE TONIGHT, WHICH BRING OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AREAS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ONLY GET DOWN INTO
UPPER 40S.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES AND
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA. NEEDLESS TO
SAY, SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE CHILLY FOR SOME OF US, AND
BEAUTIFUL FOR OTHERS.
A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL DOWN TO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS COULD DIP DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
RISE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY. THESE FACTORS WILL HELP SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS GET BACK
UP INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LOW-IMPACT AND WARM WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN
INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE GRAND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE POLAR JET DURING THIS TIME, AN EXPANDED
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL LIKELY DEFLECT PASSING SYSTEMS TO THE
NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW, WE LOOK TO RETURN
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL/MORE ATUMUN-LIKE WARMTH (70S TO LOW-80S) BY
MONDAY. DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS (10,000 TO 25,000 FT). THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
BUT THE CHANCE OF IMPACTING A TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE VIRGA. EVEN IF
SHOWERS OCCUR AT A TERMINAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 58 35 64 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 44 62 35 70 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 66 38 71 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 36 55 35 70 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 41 56 32 63 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 49 65 37 66 / 10 20 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-026-030>032.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...10
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