813
FXUS64 KOUN 031825
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
500 MB HEIGHTS ARE APPROACHING NOVEMBER RECORDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40. THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAR ABOVE AVERAGE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MERELY "ABOVE-AVERAGE" THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO ABOUT 50 AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
THE ROSSBY WAVE PATTERN WILL DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE BUT INCREASE IN
WAVELENGTH TOMORROW. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FETCH OF ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, PROMOTING A RETURN TO SEASONABLY STRONG LEE
TROUGHING. ON OUR END, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUNNY AND VERY WARM
THANKS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. RH VALUES WILL FLIRT
WITH 20 PERCENT ALONG THE 100TH MERIDIAN (PARTICULARLY IF MODELS ARE
SHOWING AN UNDERMIXING BIAS AS THEY OFTEN DO ONCE FUELS REACH
DORMANCY). HOWEVER, FUELS ARE LIKELY ONLY MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE TO
FIRE, SO EVEN IF FIRE WEATHER REACHES ELEVATED, CONCERNS WILL STILL
BE MITIGATED.
RIDGING REMAINS IN THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT A
TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH AT LEAST A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OR STORMS, BUT TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE
KEPT CLOSER TO SOMETHING RESEMBLING FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT, AT LEAST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID-80S NEAR
THE RED RIVER.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK, WITH SOME (LOW)
POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN SHIFT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ON THURSDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR 90-DEGREES ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) OUTPUT (I.E., OUR
FORECAST) RUNS TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF MOST GUIDANCE, WITH ONLY A
<10% CHANCE FOR 90S WHEN COMPARING OVER ALL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT.
THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS OUR "HEAT WAVE" WILL BREAK DOWN BY
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A MORE ROBUST FRONT/SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER THAN THAN A NORTHEAST WIND AT WWR,
PNC, AND SWO, A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP AT MOST SITES TONIGHT AS A STRONG JET DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD
COVER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 75 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 49 78 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 47 78 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 51 76 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 49 77 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...06
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