515
FXUS64 KOUN 040743
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
143 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- SEVERAL FRONTS WILL LEAD TO TEMPORARY COOL-DOWNS FOR NORTHERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA, WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED.
- SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT BRINGS SEASONABLE TO BELOW- AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
THE WARM FRONT, WHICH WAS POISED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, LIFTS
NORTHWARD TODAY AND MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS NEWLY FORMED FEATURE AND THE SURFACE HIGH (TO OUR
EAST) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY S/SW WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH TODAY. INCREASING H850 TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH SUNNY
SKIES, WILL YIELD VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70'S AND LOW 80'S (ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL).
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
STRONG JET STREAM WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT ENTERS OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THOUGH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT, BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED BEHIND FROPA ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY
MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60'S. SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VERY WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80'S.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE THEN TRAVERSES THE PLAINS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO THE MID-70'S TO MID-
80'S. ANOTHER (DRY) FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
THE YO-YO EFFECT, WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE FOR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THURSDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
COOLER WEATHER ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST ON SUNDAY. THE
NBM (01Z NOV 4) HAS AN INCREASED LIKLIHOOD OF HIGHS IN THE 50'S
FOR SUNDAY (COMPARED TO THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO) ALONG WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF LOWS IN THE 30'S ON MONDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO LINGER DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE SEEN ON SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITIES FOR 50'S ON SUNDAY: A) ABOVE 75% ALONG/NORTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR, AND B) ABOVE 50% DOWN TO A LINE FROM ALTUS TO
LAWTON TO MARIETTA.
THE PROBABILITIES FOR LOWS IN THE 30'S ON MONDAY: A) 60 TO 80%+
ALONG/NORTH OF I-40 (MINIMUM OCCURRING IN OKC DUE TO HEAT ISLAND
EFFECT), AND B) GREATER THAN 60% FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA.
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING TOWARDS SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 52 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 79 48 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 54 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 79 44 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 49 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 55 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08
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