705
FXUS64 KOUN 050001
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
601 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- SEVERAL FRONTS WILL LEAD TO TEMPORARY COOL-DOWNS FOR NORTHERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA, WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED.
- SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT BRINGS SEASONABLE TO BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA
CITY TO WICHITA FALLS. HIGH CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY NOTED IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ORIGINATING IN LENTICULAR/CIRRUS GENERATION ALONG
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS; THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S WILL
OCCUR. WATCHING A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S. MOST LIKELY, THIS PUNCH OF DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN. HOWEVER, IF THE DRY AIR
ARRIVES, RH COULD DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT AND BRING ABOUT ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER THAN THE WEAK ONE THAT STALLED IN OUR AREA YESTERDAY,
WITH MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVING NORTHEAST WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. LACK OF ANTECEDENT COLD AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
KEEP THIS COLD FRONT FROM ACTUALLY COOLING THINGS OFF ALL THAT MUCH,
AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR-AVERAGE (NORTHERN OKLAHOMA) TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE (RED RIVER AREA). SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
WE RETURN TO MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RETURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY. COMBINE THAT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WE HAVE YET ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR US.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
THE YO-YO EFFECT, WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE FOR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THURSDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
COOLER WEATHER ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST ON SUNDAY. THE
NBM (01Z NOV 4) HAS AN INCREASED LIKLIHOOD OF HIGHS IN THE 50'S
FOR SUNDAY (COMPARED TO THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO) ALONG WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF LOWS IN THE 30'S ON MONDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO LINGER DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE SEEN ON SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITIES FOR 50'S ON SUNDAY: A) ABOVE 75% ALONG/NORTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR, AND B) ABOVE 50% DOWN TO A LINE FROM ALTUS TO
LAWTON TO MARIETTA.
THE PROBABILITIES FOR LOWS IN THE 30'S ON MONDAY: A) 60 TO 80%+
ALONG/NORTH OF I-40 (MINIMUM OCCURRING IN OKC DUE TO HEAT ISLAND
EFFECT), AND B) GREATER THAN 60% FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA.
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ALL SITES
TOMORROW MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 75 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 48 76 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 44 67 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 70 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 55 80 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...23
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