360
FXUS64 KOUN 050748
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
148 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- SEVERAL FRONTS WILL LEAD TO TEMPORARY COOL-DOWNS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT BRINGS BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
SUNNY, BREEZY, AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS STATELINE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DRIFTS OVER THE
PANHANDLES. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES THIS MORNING, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING SUIT, THE SURFACE LOW IS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE PANHANDLES TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE INCREASED
BAROCLINICITY BETWEEN THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH AND PRE-FRONTAL LOW
WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING N/NNE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID-MORNING. SUSTAINED N/NNE WINDS UP TO 25 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR ELK CITY TO
LEEDY TO CHEROKEE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY DECREASING BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LLJ.
THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOW WHILE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY
THIS EVENING - NAMELY ALONG A LINE FROM SEYMOUR, TX TO ADA, OK
(WHICH WILL BE MOST EVIDENT BY THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT).
OTHER THAN THE WINDS, THE OTHER MAIN SENSIBLE IMPACT WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE FA. WE OPTED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO THE CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM MODELS, WHICH RESULTS
IN HIGHS IN THE LOW-60'S (NORTHWEST OK) TO LOW 80'S (FAR SOUTHERN
OK AND NORTH TX). FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, THIS WILL BE ROUGHLY 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTS AS A WARM FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHLERLY WINDS FLIPPING TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE IN THE LOW-70'S TO LOW-80'S ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A POTENT, PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY (NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED).
GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA, WOULD EXPECT WIND NBM'S POST-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO TREND UPWARD (WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30MPH+
FOR SOME AREAS) FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30'S TO MID-40'S. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50'S. WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
SCT TO FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING
WILL BRING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL RAMP UP AND BECOME
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE SETTING SUN, BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 49 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 72 45 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 65 38 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 45 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 80 56 80 62 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page