181
FXUS64 KOUN 061120
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 201 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT BRINGS BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A HARD FREEZE MONDAY
MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A SHORTWAVE IS RATHER EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS WEST TEXAS, AND IS MAINLY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR CLAY COUNTY. THE FRONT THAT ARRIVED
YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS NORTH
FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND ACROSS S/SE OKLAHOMA. AS THIS UPPER WAVE
ADVANCES, SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN STRATUS COULD DEVELOP ON
THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF THE FRONT - NAMELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARDS DAWN - BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH CLOSE TO MID-DAY. AS THIS WAVE PROGRESSES, THE SURFACE
LOW DISSIPATES AND THE BOUNDARY LIFTS AS A WARM FRONT TODAY.
IN ADDITION, A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AS A 100 KT JET
MAXIMA PROGRESSES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHERN WAVE). EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 MPH WITH
25 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOW- LEVEL WAA AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW (FOR WESTERN COUNTIES) WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70'S FOR MANY AND
LOW 80'S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR FA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT
EXITS OUR AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY AND
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60'S (NORTHWEST) TO LOW/MID 70'S (CENTRAL) TO
UPPER 70'S (SOUTH), WITH NORTH WINDS GENERALLY DECREASING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS
PROG'D TO ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
FROPA IS ANTICIPATED FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND EXITING BY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT FALLING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY, BUT NOT SUBSTANTIALLY SO.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DESCEND SOUTHWARD
OUT OF KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG CAA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY MORNING, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30'S TO LOW 40'S BUT IT WILL FEEL MUCH
COLDER DUE TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
20'S ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT RISE OUT OF THE 40'S, DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. A HARD FREEZE
IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS AS MONDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20'S. WILL SEE A BIT OF A WARMUP ON
MONDAY, BUT OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AS
AMPLIFYING TROUGH DEPARTS AND A RIDGE APPROACHES.
THEN, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WEAKENS AND BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARM-UP INTO THE 70'S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AT
SUNRISE, HAVE INCLUDED SHORT-DURATION MENTIONS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AT
KSPS AND KDUA, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED NEAR A WEAK
WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING, OFFERING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IN ITS WAKE. WILL
ALSO MONITOR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW CIGS AND LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 52 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 78 49 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 52 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 77 45 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 49 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 81 59 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09
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