143
FXUS64 KOUN 070548
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT BRINGS BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A HARD FREEZE MONDAY
MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH MORE THAN A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES
COMPARED TO THURSDAY, REMAINING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
OCCUR. LOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICALLY
COOLER, MORE SHELTERED AREAS.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION, WITH STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP
TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. WHILE OUR AREA WILL BE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE COLDER AIRMASS, THE FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BRING QUITE THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STILL WARM INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK, WITH HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHERN OK A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE SPEED OF
COLD SEASON FRONTS THE FASTER SOLUTIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED FOR
FRONTAL TIMING WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NEAR-STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST OK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE POURING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S (15-25 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY). A HARD FREEZE (TEMPS AT OR
BELOW 28) IS THEN EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES OF 28-32 FORECAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER
DAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
REBOUND SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIRMASS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OFF THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, SHIFTING THE WINDS THE NORTH.
THESE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 51 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 79 50 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 51 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 78 44 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 48 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 81 58 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...10
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