341
FXUS64 KOUN 240430
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- DRY WITH ABOVE/WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK, INCLUDING SOME NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE GENERALLY
DISSIPATED EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF GRANT COUNTY. SOME LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING HAD A CRAZY 500 MB HEIGHT OF 588 DM, A FULL 7
DM ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE. WITH SUCH A
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE AREA, OF COURSE THIS LEADS
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT
OKLAHOMA CITY AND LAWTON. THE RECORD AT WICHITA FALLS IS MUCH
HIGHER TODAY, SO THE RECORD MIGHT BE SAFE THERE.
THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. THE FOG IS
MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, ALTHOUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TO STAY RELATIVELY WARM, AND
HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT UP SLIGHTLY FROM NBM.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS. DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE ARE UNUSUALLY HIGH, SO WE LIKELY
WON'T BREAK RECORDS EVEN THOUGH MANY AREAS WILL BE AS WARM OR WARMER
THAN TODAY, BUT DAILY HIGH RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. ALSO DID ADJUST FORECAST LOWS UP SLIGHTLY FROM NBM AGAIN ON
THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
INSTEAD OF AN ABRUPT SHIFT/DEMISE, THE RIDGE WILL BE FORCED OUT OF
HERE IN PHASES BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE FIRST PHASE WILL BE A
TRANSITION TO A SEASONABLY STRONG ZONAL JET ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY WILL NOT BRING THE HEAT WAVE TO AND END. IN FACT, WITH
WIDESPREAD PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS, FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE WEEK.
RELIEF, SUCH AS IT IS, BEGINS ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. WE LIKELY WON'T START TO FEEL A LITTLE MORE LIKE DECEMBER
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS PUSHES IN,
THOUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK MEAGER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND REALLY INTO THE END OF 2025.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR CATEGORY REDUCTION DURING THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. THIS REMAINS MOST PROBABLE AT KPNC EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME. WHILE MORE LOCALIZED/SPORADIC IN NATURE, A QUASI-
FOCUSED SIGNAL OF DENSE FOG REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
(KLAW) AS WELL. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY MVFR-LEVEL VIS REDUCTIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AROUND DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARDS MIDDAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 75 58 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 52 75 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 43 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 51 76 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 62 77 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>008-
010>013.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09
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