590
FXUS64 KOUN 240651
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
- DRY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (~590 DAM) REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE NEAR-
RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK. THE NORMAN 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY EVENING HAD A 589 DAM HEIGHT AT 500 MB,
WHICH IS 7 DAM HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THE DATE.
FOR THIS MORNING, AREAS OF FOG--SOME DENSE--ARE ONGOING NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A REMNANT/STALLED FRONT WITH A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOISTURE POOLING. THE FOG WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
THE REMNANT FRONT DISSIPATES (FRONTOLYSIS) WITH INCREASING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS. ELSEWHERE, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING (BUT SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA).
FOR TODAY, HIGH CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST.
EVEN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S DEG F (~25 TO 30 DEG F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER). RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE
UNLIKELY TODAY ONLY BECAUSE WE HAD SOME VERY WARM CHRISTMAS EVES
IN 1955 AND 2021. BRIEF, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20%.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST TO ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S DEG F FOR MOST LOCATION. THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE THE TYPICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN LATE
DECEMBER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S (NORTH) TO
THE MID 80S DEG F (SOUTHWEST). THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ~30
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM WESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S
DEG F. VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
DRIER AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD.
BY SUNDAY, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY WITH APPRECIABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY ALSO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE COLDEST
AIR WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY.
WIND CHILLS BY MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S DEG F. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S (NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA) TO
THE UPPER 40S DEG F (WESTERN NORTH TEXAS).
THE COLDER WEATHER DOES APPEAR BRIEF WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARD
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEPARTS.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL/NEAR ZERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2025
WITH ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, DROUGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO WORSEN ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR CATEGORY REDUCTION DURING THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. THIS REMAINS MOST PROBABLE AT KPNC EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME. WHILE MORE LOCALIZED/SPORADIC IN NATURE, A QUASI-
FOCUSED SIGNAL OF DENSE FOG REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
(KLAW) AS WELL. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY MVFR-LEVEL VIS REDUCTIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AROUND DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARDS MIDDAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 57 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 80 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 82 57 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 75 39 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 73 46 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 80 61 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004>008-
010>013.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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