459
FXUS64 KOUN 241826
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
- DRY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 78 DEGREES IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
IN MID-MAY. THAT I AM LOOKING SUCH A FACT UP ON CHRISTMAS EVE IS
PROBABLY AS GOOD OF A WAY TO CONTEXTUALIZE THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE AS
ANY I CAN THINK OF. TO BE BLUNT, THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY WAYS TO SAY
IT: THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST ANOMALOUS HEAT WAVES IN RECENT MEMORY.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THAT LIKELY
WON'T BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST CONTINUING TO BE THE DOMINANT SURFACE
FEATURE. BECAUSE OF THIS, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO EVERY BIT AS WARM AS THEY
WERE YESTERDAY. WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGHER
CLOUD COVER.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD END UP STALLED IN A VERY
SIMILAR POSITION TO THIS PAST MORNING IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, SO
IT WOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE IF LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AGAIN.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
A LITTLE BIT MORE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR TOMORROW,
BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO GIVE US ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AFTER ALL,
500 MB HEIGHTS OF 5830 METERS IN LATE DECEMBER AREN'T EXACTLY COMMON
TO BEGIN WITH. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
VEERING OF THE SURFACE WINDS. THIS COULD BE A RECIPE FOR ENHANCED
MIXING/DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COULD ALLOW WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN PARTICULAR TO FIND AN EXTRA GEAR WITH
THOSE AFTERNOON HIGHS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING OF DRY/HOT AIR
FROM THE CAPROCK, WESTERN OKLAHOMA COULD EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS.
IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAK INTO THE AREA
FROM KANSAS TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO
REAL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THAT FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. WITH THAT, THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, WHICH WILL AT LEAST
KEEP FIRE CONCERNS FROM BEING RAISED WITH RHS LOOKING LOWER.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM WESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S
DEG F. VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
DRIER AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD.
BY SUNDAY, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY WITH APPRECIABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DUE TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY ALSO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE COLDEST
AIR WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY.
WIND CHILLS BY MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S DEG F. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S (NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA) TO
THE UPPER 40S DEG F (WESTERN NORTH TEXAS).
THE COLDER WEATHER DOES APPEAR BRIEF WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARD
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEPARTS.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL/NEAR ZERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2025
WITH ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, DROUGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO WORSEN ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 77 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 51 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 82 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 46 82 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 54 77 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 59 79 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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