537
FXUS64 KOUN 251713
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1111 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- DRY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR OUR CHRISTMAS DAY AS
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE STILL THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DEG F ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. THESE 1 AM TEMPERATURES ARE 10
TO 15 DEG F ABOVE OUR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS. SOME
FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WHERE
THERE IS WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO LOWER TEMPERATURES. GRANT
AND KAY COUNTIES ARE WHERE FOG IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 50 DEG F IN PARTS OF THESE
COUNTIES WITH MID 50S DEG F DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (~590 DAM) REMAINS
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST TO ADVECT
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AS A RESULT, LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (E.G.,
850 MB) ARE PROGGED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
THE NORMAN 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY EVENING HAD A 850
MB TEMPERATURE AT 18 DEG C. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THE MEAN AMONG
THE HREF (MEAN OF CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS) AND GRAND ENSEMBLE
(MEAN OF GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) HAS AN 850 MB
TEMPERATURE PROGGED AT ~20 DEG C AT NORMAN. HOWEVER, GIVEN
EXPECTED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, WE'LL LIKELY NOT EXPERIENCE THE FULL
IMPACT OF THESE HIGHER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, OPTED
FOR TEMPERATURES ~1 TO 4 DEG F HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AS CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY PREVENT US FOR REACHING THE HIGHER END OF
GUIDANCE. EVEN SO, RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY:
OKLAHOMA CITY...73 DEG F (1922 AND 2016)
WICHITA FALLS...78 DEG F (2016)
LAWTON..........76 DEG F (2016 AND 2021)
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS CONTINUING TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR MASSES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
(~5 DEG F LOWER) ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS, TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY (MID 70S TO MID 80S DEG F).
THE WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S DEG F AREA WIDE.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
BY SUNDAY, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES--ESSENTIALLY WEAKENING AND SUPPRESSING
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH APPRECIABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS LIKELY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEADY AND/OR FALLING TEMPERATURES
DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT'LL LIKELY WARM INTO THE
60S AND 70S DEG F (PART OF THE REASON IS WE'LL START OUT QUITE
WARM SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 50S AND 60S DEG F). THERE WILL ALSO BE
A LOW (20 TO 30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT--GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
WHILE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR DECEMBER STANDARDS, IT'LL DEFINITELY BE NOTICEABLE GIVEN
OUR RECENT RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. WIND CHILLS BY MONDAY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S (NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA) TO THE MID 40S DEG F (WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS). THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ~40 DEG F LOWER THAN WHAT
WE'LL SEE ON CHRISTMAS DAY (TODAY).
MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH WARMING TREND TOWARD THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 54 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 82 51 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 57 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 83 45 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 77 48 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 80 61 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page