961
FXUS64 KOUN 251814
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1214 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- DRY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
ONE OF THE PRIMARY QUESTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS WHETHER OR NOT
WE WOULD SEE HIGH CLOUD COVER LIMIT TEMPERATURES. CURRENT SATELLITE
SHOWS ALMOST NO HIGH CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF EAST OF THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER, AND THE DRYLINE HAS BEGUN MIXING EASTWARD FROM THE CAPROCK.
THERE WAS A BAND OF FOG THIS MORNING THAT HAS HAD SOME EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT THERE REMAINS
SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR TEMPS TO GET INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. RECORDS WILL BE SET.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR TO MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING SOUTH. ALTOGETHER, THE
DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR COULD PREVENT ANOTHER NIGHT OF RECORD WARM
LOWS.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WAVE TOMORROW EVEN WITH THE LIGHT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES/HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL REMAIN MORE
REMINISCENT OF A LATE SUMMER RIDGE THAN THE END OF DECEMBER, SO AS
LONG AS THE SUN COMES OUT, WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF WARMING. DECEMBER
26 RECORDS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN TODAY'S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
REACHES, SO THERE'S NO GUARANTEE WE GET ALL THAT CLOSE TO ANY
RECORDS EVEN IF TEMPERATURES DON'T CHANGE FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW.
YOU CAN START TO SMELL A WHIFF OF A PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL, THE ATTENDANT CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
SLUGGISH AND NOT THE MOST EFFECTUAL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
MEANING MORE WARMTH (THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY).
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LLJ WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. SOME MODELS
DEVELOP WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF OUR
AREA, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE HEADING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
BY SUNDAY, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES--ESSENTIALLY WEAKENING AND SUPPRESSING
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH APPRECIABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS LIKELY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEADY AND/OR FALLING TEMPERATURES
DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT'LL LIKELY WARM INTO THE
60S AND 70S DEG F (PART OF THE REASON IS WE'LL START OUT QUITE
WARM SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 50S AND 60S DEG F). THERE WILL ALSO BE
A LOW (20 TO 30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT--GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
WHILE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR DECEMBER STANDARDS, IT'LL DEFINITELY BE NOTICEABLE GIVEN
OUR RECENT RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. WIND CHILLS BY MONDAY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S (NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA) TO THE MID 40S DEG F (WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS). THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ~40 DEG F LOWER THAN WHAT
WE'LL SEE ON CHRISTMAS DAY (TODAY).
MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH WARMING TREND TOWARD THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 54 75 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 51 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 82 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 45 75 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 48 72 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 61 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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