229
FXUS64 KOUN 260657
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1257 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- DRY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY
DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND MONDAY (AND POTENTIALLY TUESDAY)
DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING IS LOWER THAN RECENT
MORNINGS, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY.
A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH THANKS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS, THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH NORTH TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT DRY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOT IN THE SOUTH. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ARE LIKELY SAFE TODAY AS RECORDS ARE QUITE HIGH FOR TODAY
(88 IN WICHITA FALLS, 83 IN LAWTON, 76 IN OKC).
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOT
TEMPERATURES (BY LATE DECEMBER STANDARDS) ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AND ANY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DAILY RECORDS
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BEATEN SOLIDLY ON SATURDAY (RECORDS FOR
12/27 ARE 77 AT WICHITA FALLS, 76 AT LAWTON AND 75 AT OKC).
BUT... CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS INITIAL FRONT
WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL
BE WARM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH NBM FORECAST DOES SEEM TO BE
LAGGING THE MORE RECENT MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY COOL AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WE HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGHS
FROM THE NBM.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WHICH WILL CREATE SOME ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT
NEAR OR BEHIND THIS FRONT, BUT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. A 1040+
MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE DAKOTAS ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AND COLDER AIR STARTS
POKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE BELOW NORMAL. BUT THESE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT POINT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION KEEPING
THE COLDEST AIR TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THE AIRMASS MOVING IN ON MONDAY IS OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN AND IS
VERY DRY. DEWPOINTS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS WILL ALLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO BECOME VERY
LOW - 20 PERCENT OR LOWER ACROSS THE WEST. SO DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY.
SOME AREAS OF THE WEST MAY SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO CONTINUED LOW RH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN THE
NEAR-TERM, AS A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
DAYTIME CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PATCHY HIGH CEILINGS AND
GRADUALLY VEERING SURFACE WINDS AS THE WEAK FRONT "WASHES OUT"
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 55 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 78 51 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 56 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 76 49 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 49 77 53 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 81 59 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09
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