283
FXUS64 KOUN 262230
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- DRY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS,
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN, AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY
DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND MONDAY (AND POTENTIALLY TUESDAY)
DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MADE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING. WE'LL HAVE A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF IT BEFORE THE BREEZE SLACKENS AND
SHIFTS TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LIGHT PRESSURE FALLS NEAR PUEBLO.
REGARDLESS, OUR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE MORE THAN LOCKED IN
SIMPLY DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY HOT AIRMASS ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
THE MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL START CREEPING NORTHWARD AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT, SUCH AS IT IS, WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE
RED RIVER NEAR DAYBREAK. STILL, THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES MUCH MORE MODERATE THAN USUAL.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAN MOST OF THIS
WEEK HAS BEEN WEATHER-WISE. IT STARTS OFF ON SATURDAY WITH WHAT
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WHOLE HEAT WAVE FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
A 60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAX AT 500 MB WILL ENCOURAGE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A MODERATE-STRENGTH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE. GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE TTU WRF BOTH SHOW A
SOLID LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF A NASCENT
DRYLINE. THE AXIS OF THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL RUN FROM MIDLAND TO
STILLWATER, AND ALONG THAT AXIS WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
WARM COMPRESSIONALLY INTO THE 80-87 RANGE.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL DETACH FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN AND BEGIN TREKKING
EASTWARD DOWN I-70 TOMORROW NIGHT. BEHIND IT, ONE OF THE STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURES OF THE WINTER SO FAR WILL BE GATHERING IN THE
PRAIRIES OF EASTERN MANITOBA. THE ENSUING DENSITY CURRENT LOOKS
MIGHTY INDEED WITH PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 2 MB/HOUR AT TIMES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THAT, THE MOST OBVIOUS
SENSIBLE IMPACT FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL REACH HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS,
BUT WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD EASILY GET INTO THE 45-50 MPH
RANGE ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA.
ALONG WITH THOSE STRONG WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR OKC PLACES THE
LOW TEMPERATURE TOMORROW NIGHT AT 58... WITH A HIGH OF 58 ON SUNDAY
AS WELL. THIS IS USUALLY A CANARY IN THE COLD MINE FOR FASTER AND
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES, AND THE GRIDDED FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THAT. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS AN INCREASINGLY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY NEAR OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST LIKELY, THIS
WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THAT LASTS A
FEW HOURS IN SPOTS AND PRODUCES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN. WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES.
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. A 1040+
MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE DAKOTAS ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AND COLDER AIR STARTS
POKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE BELOW NORMAL. BUT THESE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT POINT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION KEEPING
THE COLDEST AIR TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THE AIRMASS MOVING IN ON MONDAY IS OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN AND IS
VERY DRY. DEWPOINTS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS WILL ALLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO BECOME VERY
LOW - 20 PERCENT OR LOWER ACROSS THE WEST. SO DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY.
SOME AREAS OF THE WEST MAY SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO CONTINUED LOW RH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE SUSTAINED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH RETURNING
BREEZINESS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
MORE FOCUSED/WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF HIGH (>20KFT) CEILINGS
RETURNS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA (KDUA) BY THIS TIME.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 53 79 61 68 / 0 0 0 20
HOBART OK 50 81 55 67 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 86 62 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 48 79 44 55 / 0 0 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 47 78 53 62 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 56 82 63 76 / 0 0 0 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09
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