461
FXUS64 KOUN 271710
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- DRY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS,
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN, AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY
DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND MONDAY (AND POTENTIALLY TUESDAY)
DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM
(SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
YET ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE
WARM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THANKS TO THE HIGH CLOUDS, 10-15 MPH WINDS
AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS. THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHICH WOULD
BE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MORNING IF THE DAILY
LOW WOULD BE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MORNING LOW, BUT IT WON'T BE
BECAUSE COLD AIR IS COMING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS
(25-30 MPH WITH HIGHEST GUSTS) BEHIND IT. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO
MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA A BIT FASTER THAN MANY MODELS
SUGGEST WHICH IS A RECURRING THEME WITH A COLD AIRMASS MOVING DOWN
THE PLAINS. HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FROM NBM HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO BETTER CAPTURE THE EXPECTED DIURNAL TREND
AS THE NBM IS LIKELY A LITTLE SLOW IN ADJUSTING TO A QUICKER
FRONTAL TIMING. WE HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE FORECAST POST-FRONTAL
WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO NBM.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
FRONT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT POPS ARE STILL
GENERALLY 20 PERCENT AT MOST. FARTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST, THERE
IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES, BUT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES
IN FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT, SO WE INCLUDE THE MENTION IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS EVEN THOUGH THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, THESE SPRINKLES MAY TRANSITION INTO A FEW
FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING.
WE REMAIN IN THE COOL AIRMASS WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON
MONDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
FIRE WEATHER:
DESPITE THE COOLER WEATHER MOVING IN ON SUNDAY, THE STRONG
NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT GETTING INTO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
ON MONDAY, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO FALL TO LESS THAN 25
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DOWN TO 15-20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW RETURNS. TEMPERATURES WARM A LITTLE MORE ON WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE HEAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THE LAST FEW DAYS. A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE STRONGEST
FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST KEEPING THE COLDEST AIRMASS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE A WAVE MOVE
SOUTHEAST IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
NORTHWARD. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 9-10Z.
RATHER STRONG (45-50 KNOT) WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 2K FEET LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT MOST SITES.
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY, A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. BY 18Z, THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SHARP WIND SHIFT AT ALL
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DUA. WIND GUSTS OVER 35-40 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 63 63 26 / 0 0 20 0
HOBART OK 80 59 61 24 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 64 72 28 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 82 49 50 20 / 0 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 62 62 22 / 0 10 20 0
DURANT OK 82 65 72 30 / 0 0 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...06
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