802
FXUS64 KOUN 271743
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1143 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1134 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- DRY WITH RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY DUE TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND ELEVATED MONDAY ACROSS THE
WEST (AND POTENTIALLY TUESDAY) DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
ONLY HITTING 80 DEGREES THREE TIMES IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER AT OKC
SINCE 1890, BY THE END OF THE DAY TODAY WE WILL HIT IT TWICE THIS
WEEK.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME SHEARED OUT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. AS THIS WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST, A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TOWARD MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EXPECT ANOTHER VERY
MILD NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND NIGHT TIME LOWS SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR LATE
DECEMBER.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS WE START THE DAY AND
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WILL ISSUE
WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE MISSING OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT.
IN ADDITION, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT, BUT AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
30%. HOWEVER STRONG, GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND DORMANT VEGETATION WILL
CREATE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY, BUT REMAIN BRISK OVERNIGHT.
THIS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PAST WEEK. ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S.
WITH THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM DURING THE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH WITH 40S SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH.
WITH REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER; AFTER POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY AND
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE (PERHAPS SOME BELOW 0 DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE) DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 15% TO 25% RANGE BY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOWEST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. NORTH WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY, BUT STILL BE 15-20 MPH THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY. SO EVEN WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES, ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW RETURNS. TEMPERATURES WARM A LITTLE MORE ON WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE HEAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THE LAST FEW DAYS. A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE STRONGEST
FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST KEEPING THE COLDEST AIRMASS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE A WAVE MOVE
SOUTHEAST IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
NORTHWARD. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 9-10Z.
RATHER STRONG (45-50 KNOT) WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 2K FEET LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT MOST SITES.
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY, A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. BY 18Z, THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SHARP WIND SHIFT AT ALL
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DUA. WIND GUSTS OVER 35-40 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 67 26 38 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 63 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 72 28 46 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 50 52 20 42 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 61 62 22 37 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 65 77 30 43 / 0 20 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>029-
033>039-044-045.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...06
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