698
FXUS64 KOUN 280708
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
108 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- .KEY MESSAGES...
UPDATED AT 1249 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEHIND IT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, AND ELEVATED MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST (AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY) DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING, IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70, ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH THE REST OF TONIGHT AS
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY.
EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES BY MID AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR A PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE
FRONT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND EXTENSIVE
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND LOW 40S
SOUTH. BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MONDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SQUARELY OVER OUR
AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR,
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AND HELP
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
QUICK WARMUP IS THEN IN STORE TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS) IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN US BUILDS EASTWARD AND WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION. ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH,
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW, MAY PULL COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. UNSURPRISINGLY, MODELS SHOW A
WIDE RANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY, WITH NBM 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE
SPREADS OF 20-30 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS US DRY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH ABOUT 20% OF MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW A
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE FRIDAY SYSTEM.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT, WITH TRANSIENT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES AS A LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. BY MORNING A FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA, BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT AND REACHING
KDUA BY MID AFTERNOON.
MVFR (LOW CHANCE IFR) CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA STARTING AROUND 11Z, THOUGH LATEST MODELS ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SIGNAL. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD CLEAR WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY MORNING.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 27 38 21 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 57 24 44 20 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 28 45 23 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 48 20 41 18 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 23 37 17 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 76 30 43 25 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
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