483
FXUS64 KOUN 290502
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1102 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1102 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
OVERNIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND ELEVATED MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST (AND
POTENTIALLY TUESDAY) DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT. EVEN WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND DORMANT VEGETATION WILL RAISE THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS INTO THE ELEVATED CATEGORY THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS COLD SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, THE COMBINATION OF SOME WEAKER CAA AND SUFFICIENT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH
WILL PUT THE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH
LIGHTER NORTH WINDS, BUT COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO WARM WITH 30S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH LOW/MID 40S FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
BE VERY LOW IN THIS AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
PERHAPS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND RATHER MODEST WIND SPEEDS, THE DAYTIME RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 15-20% RANGE ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RESPOND,
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20%.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS) IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN US BUILDS EASTWARD AND WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION. ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH,
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW, MAY PULL COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. UNSURPRISINGLY, MODELS SHOW A
WIDE RANGE IN FORECAST HIGHS FRIDAY, WITH NBM 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE
SPREADS OF 20-30 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS US DRY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH ABOUT 20% OF MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW A
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE FRIDAY SYSTEM.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD, THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY BOTH
IN HOW MUCH GUSTINESS WILL MIX DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP. MODELS TEND TO KEEP LLWS
BRIEF AND MARGINAL, SO LEAVING IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. BREEZY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT BY TOMORROW
EVENING.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 25 39 21 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 57 23 44 18 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 27 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 48 19 42 18 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 21 38 17 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 80 29 43 23 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
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