546
FXUS64 KOUN 290723
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
123 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
- COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THIS MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST (AND POTENTIALLY TUESDAY) DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MIDWEEK
THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A 1040 MB SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINS NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND
TWENTIES, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S AND 40S, BUT A CONTINUED NORTHERLY
BREEZE WILL KEEP IT FEELING CHILLY THROUGH THE DAY. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS COMBINED WITH DRY AIR WILL ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
BY TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS,
WITH LOW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER, SHELTERED AREAS.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH IT.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S TUESDAY, WITH 50S AND SOME 60S BY
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS, BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE RISK SOMEWHAT.
WARE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
IN GENERAL, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE NORTHERN TX AND
SOUTHERN OK. NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AS WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO SOUTHERLY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP MAY THEN BE IN STORE BY SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD, THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY BOTH
IN HOW MUCH GUSTINESS WILL MIX DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP. MODELS TEND TO KEEP LLWS
BRIEF AND MARGINAL, SO LEAVING IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. BREEZY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT BY TOMORROW
EVENING.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 40 20 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 45 17 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 20 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 43 19 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 38 16 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 43 22 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
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