568
FXUS64 KOUN 300357
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
957 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 956 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST (AND POTENTIALLY TUESDAY) DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MIDWEEK
THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
COLD AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 20% ACROSS THE
WEST, RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, FOR TONIGHT, CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND BOTTOM OUT
IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
RETURNING ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL RISK, BUT IF
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ARE REALIZED, MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT QUITE AS COLD
WITH MID/UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL
ALSO DROP SOUTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL
BE LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AS THE COLDER AIR REMAINS CONFINED
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUES
AS HIGHS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW/MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT,
LIMITING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
IN GENERAL, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE NORTHERN TX AND
SOUTHERN OK. NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AS WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO SOUTHERLY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP MAY THEN BE IN STORE BY SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 39 18 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 44 17 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 21 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 43 19 58 25 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 38 16 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 43 23 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
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