114
FXUS64 KOUN 021713
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1111 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY, AND AS IT DOES SO WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTH. NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES IN
THE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULT IN DAYTIME CU
FIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE
EARLIER ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. LIMIT MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
WAVE, BUT AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF MID CLOUDS WILL MARK THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE DAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE
EARLIER ONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. LIMIT MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
WAVE, BUT AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF MID CLOUDS WILL MARK THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE DAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND
SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP RH
VALUES FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW 30%, BUT SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY AS ERC VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 60-75 PERCENTILE RANGE AS
THE DORMANT VEGETATION CONTINUES TO DRY, BECOMING MORE RECEPTIVE TO
FIRE STARTS. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AS
WELL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY A SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO MOVE EAST. AS THIS
OCCURS, A SURFACE TROUGH AND PSUEDO-DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE STRONGER WINDS MAY REMAIN FURTHER EAST, THE DRY
AIR ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES THAT AGAIN
WILL BE SOME 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO CREATE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN, CLOUD COVER MAY
LIMIT CONCERN TO SOME DEGREE.
OTHERWISE, THE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AS MENTIONED ABOVE BRING
VERY WARM AIR EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS RESULTING
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL INTO THE 70S AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW
80S IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY, HOWEVER WINDS
APPEAR TO BE MUCH LIGHTER AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WE SEE POTENTIAL
PATTERN CHANGE AS STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST FROM THE BAJA AREA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL RUNS
KEEP BETTER RAIN CHANCE EITHER EAST OR NORTH OF OUR AREA. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION, REMAINS LOW AS
WE HAVE SEEN THAT AS THESE SYSTEMS APPROACH THE AREA THIS WINTER
THEY END UP NOT PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP. PERSISTENCE WOULD SAY KEEP
THINGS DRY UNTIL YOU START TO SEE IT RAIN. HOWEVER, NBM HAS KEPT
SOME 20-40% POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THIS FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL CAUSE A 30-50 DEGREE
COUNTERCLOCKWISE SHIFT OF THE WIND DIRECTION AT MOST SITES, BUT
MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS AND BELOW.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 55 35 60 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 36 63 34 64 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 41 65 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 32 62 36 68 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 32 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 45 63 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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