358
FXUS64 KOUN 031753
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1150 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
INFLUENCED BY A ~1020 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ~5 TO 10 DEG F
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TEMPREATURE GRADIENT WITH AREAS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEING THE COOLEST (CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE HIGH).
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT,
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON WITH A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND
70S DEG F.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AS A VORT MAX/JET
STREAK APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE WILL
BE RELATIVELY DEEP (~15,000 FT), SO THE CIRRUS WILL BE DENSE. THE
DENSE CIRRUS SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER RISK WITH
ONLY TRANSIENT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 30%.
BY MONDAY, EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FARTHER TO THE EAST. AS A
RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S DEG F WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORDS BEING SET.
A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR/LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM VEERED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 15%. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS AMOUNT OF CIRRUS/HIGH CLOUDS AND
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL MIXING. LESS CIRRUS WILL RESULT IN MORE MIXING
AND STRONGER WINDS. IF WINDS ARE END UP STRONGER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEAR THE 100TH
MERIDIAN.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK
BEFORE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EJECTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING THEY DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE INITIAL LEAD WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE GFS
WANTS TO PULL THE LEAD WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, THE ECMWF REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH NO
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WHILE BOTH MODELS
BRING A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT OVERHEAD AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS FRIDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED LAST NIGHT, PERSISTENCE WOULD
SAY DRIER IS THE WAY TO LEAN AND THE LATEST NBM NUMBERS HAVE SHIFTED
THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST, AND WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO NBM AT THIS TIME AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS
EVOLVE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A SMALL REGION OF LOW CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAR
NORTH CENTRAL OK INCLUDING KPNC. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE BECOMING
SCATTERED/DISSIPATING. AFTER THAT, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHEAST OK FOR
POTENTIAL CEILING RESTRICTIONS IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
UNTIL MORNING, WHEN THEY WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OK).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 34 60 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 33 64 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 67 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 37 68 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 30 59 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 34 61 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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