046
FXUS64 KOUN 040604
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1157 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
COOLER SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST WITH BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO EXPAND THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
FURTHER EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
ALSO REMAIN ABOVE 30% THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN EXPANDING/WARMING
THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS MAY MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STILL APPROACH DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL WORK EAST INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY BRINGING
DRIER AIR IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 15-20% RANGE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THE VERTICAL
MIXING KEEPING WIND SPEEDS IN CHECK. HOWEVER, IF LESS CLOUD COVER IS
PRESENT AND DEEPER MIXING TAKES PLACE, SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, WHICH
WOULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT, SURFACE TROUGH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY AND PERHAPS COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT STILL ANTICIPATE HIGHS WILL
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY DROP TO AROUND
20%, ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FIRE
CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH WESTERN TROUGH OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE IS A
DESCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY,
PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE
WEEKEND. TIMING, AMOUNTS AND LOCATION ARE ALL STILL IN QUESTION, BUT
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT, BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW. THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME BREEZINESS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 34 59 46 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 33 62 43 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 62 35 66 47 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 62 36 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 48 29 58 41 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 59 34 60 46 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
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