216
FXUS64 KOUN 041820
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
DENSE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A JET STREAK/VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON. THE DENSE
CIRRUS HAS LIMITED INSOLATION AND VERTICAL MIXING, SO TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT RISE AS HIGH AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT 12 TO 14 DEG C
WOULD INDICATE. EVEN SO, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S DEG
F ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS, IT'LL BE A VERY
MILD NIGHT FOR EARLY JANUARY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S DEG
F TONIGHT. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
BY MONDAY, WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WHILE CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN, THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
DENSE AND WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY. AS A RESULT, NEAR-RECORD TO
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
AND 80S DEG F.
A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES EASTWARD INTO KANSAS. VEERED LOW-
LEVEL FLOW (SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS) BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL
ADVECT DRIER AIR/LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO
15%. COMBINED WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 10 TO 20 WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
THE FUELS IN THIS ARE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO IGNITION WITH ERG
(ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT) VALUES AROUND THE 70TH-89TH PERCENTILE.
AS A RESULT, THE TOTAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT (WEATHER + FUELS) HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS (E.G., TTU WRF AND HRRR)
THAT INDICATE AN AREA OF ENHANCED DRYING AND STRONGER 850 MB FLOW
IMPINGING NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE, OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR FAR WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER/CIRRUS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS. LESS
CIRRUS WILL RESULT IN MORE MIXING AND STRONGER WINDS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH DOWNSLOPE-WARMING AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S DEG F.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH WESTERN TROUGH OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE IS A
DESCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY,
PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE
WEEKEND. TIMING, AMOUNTS AND LOCATION ARE ALL STILL IN QUESTION, BUT
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
STRATUS HAS CREPT INTO THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FA LATE THIS
MORNING, WITH LIFR CEILINGS AND SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION NOW
NOTED AT DUA. THIS ADVANCE WILL LIKELY BE STANCHED IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, BROKEN CLOUD COVER ABOVE 15,000 FEET PERSISTS. TOMORROW
IS EXPECTED TO BE A BREEZY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 72 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 44 76 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 78 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 38 75 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 41 72 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 45 71 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ014-021-033.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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