623
FXUS64 KOUN 051125
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
525 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM AND POTENTIALLY RECORD SETTING DAY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS HIGHS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TODAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. VERY DRY AIR TO
THE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO DROP
INTO THE 10-20% RANGE ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. CURRENTLY WIND SPEEDS LOOK SOMEWHAT MARGINAL,
BUT IF DEEPER MIXING CAN OCCUR WOULD EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
STRONGER ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTS. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY
ALSO HAMPER FUEL MOISTURE FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS IT OTHERWISE
WOULD UNDER SUNNY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES OF
SOME 25- 30 DEGREES AND ERC VALUES IN THE 70-85% WILL STILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED AND POSSIBLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONVERT THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW COUNTIES
OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT ONLY MINIMAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR EARLY
JANUARY (MID 60S TO MID 70S).
SOUTH WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF WESTERN STORM
SYSTEM. AGAIN, EXPECT ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
BUT MID/LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY WITH 60S AND 70S. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL PULL
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE HEELS OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND WITH THE AID OF SOME WAA AND FORCING FROM A LEAD
WAVE, RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED BACK A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LEAD WAVE AS
IT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND LOOKS TO
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-44 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT,
HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44 COULD RECEIVE 1/2 TO
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3/4 OF AN INCH.
AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT, COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
BRINGING "COLDER" AIR INTO THE AREA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME WARP-AROUND
PRECIP LINGER IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DUA, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY. EARLY THIS MORNING, VERY LOW CLOUDS (AROUND 400
FEET) WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR DUA. THERE'S
A LOW CHANCE OF LIFR CEILINGS AT DUA AND LIGHT FOG THROUGH ABOUT
14Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS. HEATING
AND MIXING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS CLOUD COVER SCATTERED AND/OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A DRY LINE/TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING (AROUND 1500 FEET)
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 44 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 76 41 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 45 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 75 37 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 38 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 69 49 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OKZ014-021-033.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ083.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06
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