693
FXUS64 KOUN 052330
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS THE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO
MORE WESTERLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
HUMIDITY IS DOWN TO 25-35 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WEST JUST BEFORE
NOON, AND HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED BELOW 20 PERCENT IN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO CREATE THE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMBINED WITH THIS LOW HUMIDITY.
THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE
100TH MERIDIAN FROM ROGER MILLS TO HARDEMAN COUNTIES WHERE THE
FUELS ARE THE DRIEST, ALTHOUGH THE AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
HUMIDITY NEAR OR LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL COVER
AREAS EAST TO NEAR ALVA, CLINTON, FREDERICK, ELECTRA AND SEYMOUR.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS HUMIDITY RECOVERS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHERLY. BUT LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED THE THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOMORROW IN MOST
AREAS, EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR. THE
FRONT ALSO BRINGS IN LOWER DEWPOINTS, SO MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL BE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 20
PERCENT IN THE WEST. BUT WIND WILL BE LIGHTER AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME (ALTHOUGH FUELS
ARE STILL QUITE DRY IN THE WEST AND CAUTION IS STILL URGED TO
PREVENT THE START OR SPREAD OF ANY FIRES).
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP SLIGHTLY, SO WE
COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE FAR WEST.
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, AN UPPER-LEVEL ROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A MID-LEVEL 70-80 KNOT JET POINTED AT
NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED BACK A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LEAD WAVE AS
IT LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND LOOKS TO
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-44 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT,
HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44 COULD RECEIVE 1/2 TO
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3/4 OF AN INCH.
AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT, COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
BRINGING "COLDER" AIR INTO THE AREA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME WARP-AROUND
PRECIP LINGER IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LLWS
POSSIBLE NEAR KSPS, KCSM, AND KWWR. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 41 70 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 45 73 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 37 66 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 38 67 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 48 72 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page