177
FXUS64 KOUN 061117
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
517 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
- CHANCE OF WINTER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE FLOW. BY SUNRISE, MOST OF THE 40 TO
NEAR 50 DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY LITTLE COOLING WILL OCCUR
WITH THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BECOME RATHER LOW AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL APPROACH 15-20 PERCENT AFTER FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH TUESDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, BUT SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 15+ MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, SIMILAR TO WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING WAS IN EFFECT
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO LOWS
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE MIXING AND WIND GUSTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, BUT WILL SEE IF THE
CLOUD COVER HOLDS TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. BASED ON
EXPECTED CONDITIONS, AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT MAY OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES,
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO APPROACH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
RATHER QUICKLY AND BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY NOON THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINT WILL APPROACH 60 DEGREES ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 500+
J/KG (MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A STILLWATER TO WICHITA FALLS LINE).
EFFECTIVE CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER STRONG (AT LEAST 50+
KNOTS), SO MOST THE PRECIPITATION AND STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE QUICK MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN ELEVATED MOISTURE GRADIENT WHERE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/STORMS RESIDE A LITTLE LONGER.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS VERY
DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE THURSDAY SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OVERLY COLD OR DRY, AT LEAST
INITIALLY, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS FALLING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ENOUGH COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
TO MAINLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 40S ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
STATE, BUT IF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS LINGER, HIGHS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 30S. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
AFTER THE FRIDAY SYSTEM, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS
OCCURS, FORECAST HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED COMPARED TO CURRENT
NBM VALUES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATER THIS MORNING WITH
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 42 69 53 / 0 0 0 70
HOBART OK 70 39 70 49 / 0 0 0 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 42 76 54 / 0 0 0 70
GAGE OK 66 36 68 44 / 0 0 0 40
PONCA CITY OK 67 36 68 50 / 0 0 0 60
DURANT OK 73 42 73 57 / 0 0 0 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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