567
FXUS64 KOUN 061841
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
TRANSIENT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS, WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 20% OR LOWER,
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO MID 60S TO LOW 70S DEG F WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
END AT SUNSET.
OTHERWISE, IT'S ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR EARLY JANUARY STANDARDS WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED. EVEN SO, WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 DEG F ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BRIEF, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN (WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 %); HOWEVER, INCREASING CLOUD
COVER SHOULD TEMPER THIS RISK.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(~90 KNOTS AT 500 MB) WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION AUGMENTED BY A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND ~500 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY. WHILE IT APPEARS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ELEVATED, SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IF THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IF SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
CAN BE REALIZED, THERE WILL BE AN ATTENDANT QLCS
MESOVORTEX/TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH ANY LINEAR SEGMENTS ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYSLOT. AT THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY FOR
THIS SCENARIO IS LOW WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL, SOME LOCATIONS HAVE DECENT CHANCE OF
GETTING APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A 60 TO 80% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 0.25" OF RAINFALL ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
EVEN WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAS AROUND A 30% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.25"
OF RAINFALL. THERE IS A 40 TO 50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.50" OF
RAINFALL FROM NEAR THE OKC METRO TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST IN TANDEM WITH
THE DRYSLOT. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY EXIT LATE MORNING/MIDDAY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN ITS
WAKE, IT'LL BE ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S DEG F.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ENOUGH COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
TO MAINLY FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 40S ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
STATE, BUT IF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS LINGER, HIGHS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 30S. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
AFTER THE FRIDAY SYSTEM, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS
OCCURS, FORECAST HIGHS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED COMPARED TO CURRENT
NBM VALUES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET, THEN BECOME
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 42 69 53 67 / 0 0 70 50
HOBART OK 39 70 49 70 / 0 0 70 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 42 76 54 73 / 0 0 70 40
GAGE OK 36 68 44 63 / 0 0 40 20
PONCA CITY OK 36 68 50 66 / 0 0 60 60
DURANT OK 42 73 57 72 / 0 0 50 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...13
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