047
FXUS64 KOUN 071744
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1141 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A UPPER
LOW/TROUGH, CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. DURING PEAK
HEATING, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS WHERE
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP. SO THERE APPEARS TO
BE A RATHER CONDITIONAL PERIOD OF ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST, WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BEFORE REACHING WEST TEXAS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY NOON THURSDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, 50 TO NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR WILL ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN-TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AS ASCENT INCREASES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3AM-NOON
THURSDAY. CAMS AND SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE.
REGARDLESS, IT DOES APPEAR MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE ELEVATED WITH MAINLY A RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL (STORM
MOTION NORTHEAST AT 50+ MPH). ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW
RISK, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED CONVECTION.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR VERY QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY MAY VALUES MAY REMAIN ABOVE 20-25 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS A GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WIND COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE BIGGER UNKNOWN AT
THIS TIME, IS THE AMOUNT OF WETTING RAINFALL THAT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIMIT WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL
OF SNOW, BUT THE INTENSITY AND DURATION MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF AN IMPACT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED
TO GRASSY AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AFTER THE SECOND SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND AFTERNOON HIGH AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO EARLY JANUARY AVERAGES. THIS WILL MAINLY
OCCUR AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN
CLOUDS GENERALLY IN THE 20,000 FOOT RANGE. THOSE CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING GUSTS FROM REGISTERING, THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STILL
BE 8-13 KNOTS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND SHEAR INCREASES AROUND
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE AREA. IT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 40-45 KNOTS, AND WILL SUBSIDE ONCE A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THAT PACIFIC FRONT WILL CARRY SHOWERS
AND RATHER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW NEAR
DAYBREAK. RAIN-RELATED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND ESPECIALLY DROPS
TO LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKELY.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 69 38 52 / 80 80 0 10
HOBART OK 52 71 35 52 / 80 50 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 75 41 62 / 80 70 0 0
GAGE OK 46 65 30 39 / 70 40 10 60
PONCA CITY OK 52 69 36 48 / 80 90 0 20
DURANT OK 58 77 46 66 / 20 60 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04
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