705
FXUS64 KOUN 071816
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1216 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK, WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACT EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH READINGS
ALREADY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANGES WILL BE
COMING LATER TONIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE
TONIGHT, TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD QUICKLY
TONIGHT, WITH UPPER 50 TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, THOUGH RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND NEARLY SATURATED
VERTICAL PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL RISK. THAT SAID,
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS
VERY LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH MEAGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND
LESS THAN IDEAL LOW-MID LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, BUT A BRIEF SPINUP OR TWO
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF GREATER SURFACE
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK, WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING WITH
SOUTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS OUR FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
RAIN AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM THURSDAY BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
(60S/70S), WITH THE LAGGING COLD FRONT NOT CROSSING THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE COULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS
OF NOW, THE BULK OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HEAVIER SNOW TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA. LATEST NBM SHOWS
ABOUT A 40-50% CHANCE OF 1" OF SNOWFALL IN NORTHWEST HARPER
COUNTY, QUICKLY TAPERING TO 10-20% FURTHER SOUTHEAST NEAR
WOODWARD. WITH VERY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL COLD AIR
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA, THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH CLOSELY AS A SMALL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS INTO OUR AREA.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN
CLOUDS GENERALLY IN THE 20,000 FOOT RANGE. THOSE CLOUDS ARE
KEEPING GUSTS FROM REGISTERING, THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STILL
BE 8-13 KNOTS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND SHEAR INCREASES AROUND
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE AREA. IT IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 40-45 KNOTS, AND WILL SUBSIDE ONCE A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THAT PACIFIC FRONT WILL CARRY SHOWERS
AND RATHER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW NEAR
DAYBREAK. RAIN-RELATED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND ESPECIALLY DROPS
TO LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKELY.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 69 38 52 / 80 80 0 10
HOBART OK 52 71 35 52 / 80 50 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 75 41 62 / 80 70 0 0
GAGE OK 46 65 30 39 / 70 40 10 60
PONCA CITY OK 52 69 36 48 / 80 90 0 20
DURANT OK 58 77 46 66 / 20 60 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page