849
FXUS64 KOUN 080246
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
846 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 832 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK, WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACT EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE AND MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ISSUED AT 846 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OUR EXPECTATIONS TONIGHT.
RADAR ECHOES ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE
MID-LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT LOW LEVELS ARE STILL DRY AND
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE ECHOES ARE GENERALLY
EVAPORATING AS VIRGA BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTH
FROM THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, MOST LIKELY INITIALLY IN
THE 2 AM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME IN THE SOUTHWEST, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE INCREASING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG OR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH
A 45 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL INCREASE AROUND 5 AM AS LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES TO CORRESPOND WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH
WINDS REMAIN THE MOST LIKELY FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH READINGS
ALREADY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANGES WILL BE
COMING LATER TONIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE
TONIGHT, TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD QUICKLY
TONIGHT, WITH UPPER 50 TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT. WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, THOUGH RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND NEARLY SATURATED
VERTICAL PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL RISK. THAT SAID,
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS
VERY LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH MEAGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND
LESS THAN IDEAL LOW-MID LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, BUT A BRIEF SPINUP OR TWO
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF GREATER SURFACE
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK, WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING WITH
SOUTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS OUR FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
RAIN AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM THURSDAY BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
(60S/70S), WITH THE LAGGING COLD FRONT NOT CROSSING THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE COULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS
OF NOW, THE BULK OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HEAVIER SNOW TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA. LATEST NBM SHOWS
ABOUT A 40-50% CHANCE OF 1" OF SNOWFALL IN NORTHWEST HARPER
COUNTY, QUICKLY TAPERING TO 10-20% FURTHER SOUTHEAST NEAR
WOODWARD. WITH VERY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL COLD AIR
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS IN OUR AREA, THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH CLOSELY AS A SMALL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS INTO OUR AREA.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THERE IS A LOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE WILL
INITIALLY START THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP AS SOON AS MID-
EVENING AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA EXITING THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR VERY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE MORE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 69 38 52 / 80 80 0 10
HOBART OK 52 71 35 52 / 80 50 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 75 41 62 / 80 70 0 0
GAGE OK 46 65 30 39 / 70 40 10 60
PONCA CITY OK 52 69 36 48 / 80 90 0 20
DURANT OK 58 77 46 66 / 20 60 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26
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