502
FXUS64 KOUN 081119
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
519 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 441 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH ABOUT NOON.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK, WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACT EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO, WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE BY NOON. STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH 3-HR DEWPOINT CHANGES AROUND
20-25 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWER
60 DEWPOINT AIR REACHING A STILLWATER TO LAWTON AND WICHITA FALLS
LINE BY SUNRISE. BETTER FORCING HAS ALREADY REACHED WEST TEXAS AS
WEAK ECHOS ARE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AND EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 AM
(PER RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR) WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. IT STILL APPEARS MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH FAST MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS (AT LEAST
50 MPH NORTHEAST).
AS STRONGER FORCING ENCOUNTERS BETTER THETA-E AIR (CENTRAL OKLAHOMA)
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERAL CAMS INDICATING MORE OF A
QUASI-LINEAR LOOK OR A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE WEAK (BELOW 1000 J/KG), RATHER STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
AT LEAST 35-40 KNOTS IS FORECAST. PER SOUNDINGS, MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BOUNDARY-
LAYER STORMS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF QLCS
TORNADOES/COUPLETS. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS ETC. MOST THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY NOON.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL KEEP A BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE HUMIDITY APPROACH
20 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS THIS AREA, A CLEAR
SKY AND A BREEZY WIND MAY NEGATE THIS BENEFIT. SO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY TO MID FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, THIS SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN SOME AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH THAT SOME PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. IT'S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW AREAS (NW) MAY
EXPERIENCE SNOWFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURE TO
FREEZING WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME ACCUMULATION ON THE GRASS. HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES WOULD LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR IMPACTS ON ROADS
WHICH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND A BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
COLD/COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR REMAINING
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WITH AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT,
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SHOWERS/STORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT MOST
SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT PNC
THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 37 52 32 49 / 0 10 10 0
HOBART OK 33 52 29 53 / 0 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 39 62 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 29 40 21 48 / 10 60 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 35 48 29 49 / 0 20 20 0
DURANT OK 43 63 37 54 / 0 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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