252
FXUS64 KOUN 081824
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK, WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACT EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON,
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DIP INTO THE 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST OK, WITH 30S ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A QUICK MOVING
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OK. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS FAR NW OK APPEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR SNOW
SHORTLY AFTER PRECIPITATION BEGINS, WITH A SATURATED AND SUB 0C
COLUMN FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ON UPWARD. PRECIPITATION RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT, BUT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS THAT COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES AND ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS IS ACROSS FAR NW OK (MAINLY NORTHERN ELLIS INTO HARPER
COUNTY) WHERE ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST, WITH HIGH END
AMOUNTS NEAR 2" A LOW PROBABILITY (~20%). SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING WHICH IS LIKELY TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER BANDS TO GRASSY/ELEVATED
SURFACES, AND EVEN THERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL (NO
MORE THAN A DUSTING). FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER AND EXPECT MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AND/OR EXIT THE AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEGREES IN OUR NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPING THINGS CHILLY, MAINLY
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT PLENTY OF SUN HELPING TO TAKE THE
EDGE OFF THE CHILL A BIT.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
COLD/COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR REMAINING
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WITH AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT,
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING SOON AFTER FROPA. THERE IS A MEDIUM-HIGH
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS AT PNC THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX BY MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY AT WWR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 52 32 50 / 0 10 20 0
HOBART OK 33 53 29 53 / 0 10 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 38 61 34 54 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 27 39 21 50 / 0 50 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 34 48 29 50 / 0 10 20 0
DURANT OK 41 63 37 54 / 0 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...01
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