022
FXUS64 KOUN 271740
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1140 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1133 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
- VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN SPOTS.
- FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
WE ARE SITTING AT 80-90 CONSECUTIVE HOURS BELOW FREEZING AND THE
MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE HOW MANY OF US END THAT STREAK.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS BECAUSE OF A LIGHT BREEZE, THOUGH THAT DOES MEAN
WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM NEAR TO TEN BELOW ZERO.
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TODAY, SO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. DESPITE THIS,
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REACH OR
EXCEED 32 FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW, THE LIKELIEST AREAS TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ARE CLOSE TO AND JUST NORTHWEST OF I-44 WHERE
THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPEST. OTHERWISE, TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 30S.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE IMPACT OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD A
DEAL OF MELTING SNOW, WHICH WILL IN TURN MAKE CONDITIONS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE LIKELIEST
SPOT FOR THAT FREEZING FOG WILL BE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A ZONE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THAT WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY AND EAT FURTHER INTO
THE SNOWPACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MELTING SNOW ARE OFTEN A CATALYST
FOR EVEN MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT, SO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PROVE THE HIGH POINT OF THE WEEK
TEMPERATURE-WISE, AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY MIXED ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE AND GEFS BOTH
SHOW A 40-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA, WHILE THE EPS OUTRIGHT FAILS TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES
TO NAIL DOWN ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT'S LOCATION IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SPOTS NORTH
OF I-40 POTENTIALLY REMAINING SUB-FREEZING.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
A LOBE OF THAT GREAT LAKES TROUGH LOOKS TO DIVE DUE SOUTH ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT, EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z
ECMWF WAS NOTABLE FOR HAVING A 1046 MB HIGH DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA (EPS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND 1042). WITH THOSE SORT OF
SURFACE PRESSURES, WE COULD SEE VERY, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING ANYWHERE THAT SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND.
AS THE OLD SAYING GOES, "THIS TOO SHALL PASS". OUR FORAY INTO A
NORTHERN-PLAINS-STYLE WINTER WILL COME TO AN END SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
NBM SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL AS EARLY AS
MONDAY WHICH WOULD TRACK WITH RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT WE END UP DELAYING THE START OF THAT
WARMUP ANOTHER DAY OR TWO INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY, THOUGH.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VARIABLE
WINDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH FREEZING
FOG, ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS TO LAWTON TO OKC TO STILLWATER.
GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FREEZING FOG ARE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND A PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 12 38 25 36 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 10 37 24 39 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 12 40 25 44 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 11 50 22 38 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 6 36 20 33 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 20 42 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...01
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