031
FXUS64 KOUN 272356
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 547 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
- FREEZING FOG, SOME DENSE, POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE QUESTION OF THE DAY TODAY WILL BE "WHO WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING?" LOCATIONS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRED WILL
HAVE THE HARDEST TIME, ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY GOT A COLDER START TO
THE MORNING. CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO LIKELY
HINDER SOME OF THE WARMING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DESPITE ALL THIS, AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THERE IS DEFINITELY SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE
THE DEEPEST SNOWPACK IS LOCATED.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX. SOME OF THE FOG MIGHT BECOME
DENSE. IF THIS OCCURS AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING, A
LAYER OF ICE COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES
INCLUDING BRIDGES/OVERPASSES.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
ANY FOG/FREEZING FOG WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
MORNING BUT COULD LAST UNTIL MID-DAY WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS.
THE GRADUAL WARM UP WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH MORE, IF NOT ALL OF
THE FA, CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING. ONCE AGAIN THE COOLEST SPOTS WILL
LIKELY BE WHERE THE SNOWPACK STILL LINGERS, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRED.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SFC, A SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT BUT SOME LOCATIONS IN
AT LEAST NORTHERN OK MAY NOT MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY WITH
WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 40S) TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GO BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS WELL WITH SOME
ENSEMBLES REMAINING DRY AND SOME SHOWING A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA. IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION, IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES WITH CURRENTLY JUST A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
A LOBE OF THAT GREAT LAKES TROUGH LOOKS TO DIVE DUE SOUTH ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT, EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z
ECMWF WAS NOTABLE FOR HAVING A 1046 MB HIGH DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA (EPS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND 1042). WITH THOSE SORT OF
SURFACE PRESSURES, WE COULD SEE VERY, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING ANYWHERE THAT SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND.
AS THE OLD SAYING GOES, "THIS TOO SHALL PASS". OUR FORAY INTO A
NORTHERN-PLAINS-STYLE WINTER WILL COME TO AN END SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
NBM SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL AS EARLY AS
MONDAY WHICH WOULD TRACK WITH RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT WE END UP DELAYING THE START OF THAT
WARMUP ANOTHER DAY OR TWO INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY, THOUGH.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WITH WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD. SOME
FOG MAY BECOME DENSE WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT DUA AND SPS
FOR LIFR CONDITIONS, WHILE THE LINE FOR DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL BE
SHARP AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST IT
WILL OCCUR BEFORE BECOMING PATCHY AND LESS DENSE. THE LOW CEILINGS
AND FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MID- MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 12 38 25 36 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 10 37 24 39 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 12 40 25 44 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 11 50 22 38 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 6 36 20 33 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 20 42 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...23
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