918
FXUS64 KOUN 281733
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING
- BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
THE PRIMARY NEAR-TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
PRESENCE AND EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS
IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOW RH SITTING IN THE 90-
100 PERCENT RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1-5 MILES AS OF THE
WRITING OF THIS AFD. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF OUR AREA ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT. GIVEN
THAT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 20S, ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
LEAD TO FREEZING FOG, WHICH COULD PUT A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE OVER
ROADS THAT ARE ALREADY TREACHEROUS IN MANY PLACES DUE TO THE
MELT/REFREEZE CYCLE.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE BULK OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. THAT WILL MAKE TODAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
COMING WEEK FOR MANY OF US (THOUGH STILL NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS BETWEEN 40 AND 50. SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE SNOWPACK STARTING TO RECEDE.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
FURTHER SNOWMELT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD OPEN US UP TO A PERHAPS
MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF FOG NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. FOG OR
LOW CLOUD COVER MAY LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF
OKC WHERE A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DURING THAT TIME.
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. WESTERN NORTH TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MIGHT END UP
WARMING UP TO A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES, BUT NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40 THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWNWARD. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE EPS CONTINUES TO BE
UNIMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT
WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH. THE GEFS AND
THE NAM ARE LENDING WEIGHT MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EPS, SO
FORECAST WAS LEFT AS IT IS (IE, MOSTLY DRY).
COLDER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL START TO SPILL IN ON FRIDAY, DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE WATCHED AS A
POTENTIAL TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES IF IT
BECOMES CLEAR THAT THE FRONTAL PUSH WILL BE FASTER THAN MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS SHOW, BUT GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SURFACE PATTERN, THIS
ISN'T A GIVEN AT THE MOMENT. BY SATURDAY MORNING, SURFACE PRESSURES
WILL BE BACK IN THE VICNITY OF 1040-1044 MB, SO ANY REMAINING
SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO GET WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A COMPACT WINTER TROUGH WILL DIG DUE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO INTO THE MID-
SOUTH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP LOCK THAT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN TURN, THAT
MEANS WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE DAYS OF LIKELY DRY AND COLD WEATHER.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. USUALLY
THAT'S NOT MUCH OF A SHOCK, BUT AFTER THE STAGNANT PATTERN OF
DECEMBER/EARLY JANUARY IT'S NICE TO SEE WINTER ACTING LIKE WINTER.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE WEEK AND FINALLY
BRING US BACK TO AVERAGE EARLY FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES, MELTING OFF
WHAT REMAINS OF THE SNOW. BEHIND IT, A PERIOD OF TROUGHINESS WILL
LIKELY ENCOURAGE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z
THURSDAY, BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO MOST
TERMINALS BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 12Z AT PNC/SWO/OKC AND
OUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 39 26 36 16 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 40 25 39 16 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 40 26 44 19 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 51 22 38 17 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 36 21 34 11 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 41 26 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page