058
FXUS64 KOUN 290004
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
604 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 555 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
- BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION (SUNSHINE). TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA REACHING THE 50S F. THE SNOW PACK FROM THE
WEEKEND WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TEMPER THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMUP BY THE INCREASED SURFACE ALBEDO.
FOR TONIGHT, A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS ITS PARENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATES. CURRENTLY, THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS
EAST OF HWY 281 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT A GUARANTEE (30 TO 40%
CHANCE/MEDIUM CHANCE), BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO CHECK THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING AS IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
IF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG DEVELOPS TONIGHT, IT WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING/EXPANDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SOUTHEAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
BECOME BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE FRONT'S WAKE WILL PUT A STOP TO OUR CURRENT
WARMING TREND FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF TO TWO- THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA LOWER ON THURSDAY THAN
WEDNESDAY. ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE COOLER
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
A STRONGER, SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE IN THIS FRONT'S
WAKE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FRIDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS, DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
RANGING FROM +5 TO -15 DEG F WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE FRONT'S WAKE (HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA). AT THIS TIME, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIGHT.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A COMPACT WINTER TROUGH WILL DIG DUE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO INTO THE MID-
SOUTH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP LOCK THAT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN TURN, THAT
MEANS WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE DAYS OF LIKELY DRY AND COLD WEATHER.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. USUALLY
THAT'S NOT MUCH OF A SHOCK, BUT AFTER THE STAGNANT PATTERN OF
DECEMBER/EARLY JANUARY IT'S NICE TO SEE WINTER ACTING LIKE WINTER.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE WEEK AND FINALLY
BRING US BACK TO AVERAGE EARLY FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES, MELTING OFF
WHAT REMAINS OF THE SNOW. BEHIND IT, A PERIOD OF TROUGHINESS WILL
LIKELY ENCOURAGE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BRINGING A LOW-TO-MEDIUM (~30%) CHANCE
FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
THEREFORE, PROB30 WAS UTILIZED AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. A SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 27 34 17 35 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 25 39 15 42 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 27 44 20 42 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 22 38 17 45 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 21 33 11 30 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 26 47 23 42 / 10 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...23
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