033
FXUS64 KOUN 291718
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.
- BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DRIFTING DOWN
INTO THE MID-20S. TRENDS ARE LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT. RH IS ONLY REACHING 80 PERCENT IN A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST,
NORTH CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT. STILL THINK
THAT PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS AROUND DAYBREAK,
WITH ASSOCIATED SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND BRIDGES.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT, A PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER PRIMARILY IN A
ZONE JUST WEST OF I-35, THOUGH ALL OF US WILL REMAIN BELOW-AVERAGE.
NO PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY BUT AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY AS A TROUGH KICKS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS. BEHIND THAT TROUGH, ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH
IS LOADING UP ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES, AND THAT WILL START
OOZING DUE SOUTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A MODEST SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, THERE IS A LOW (20%) POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER IS UNLIKELY DUE TO OVERWHELMING COLD ADVECTION.
BY SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
UP TO MINNESOTA. IF THERE IS ANY RESIDUAL SNOWPACK, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD GET BELOW ZERO. EVEN IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN, A
LIGHT NORTH BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING WIND CHILLS BACK INTO THE
0 TO 10 BELOW RANGE, SO WE ARE LIKELY TRACKING TOWARD ANOTHER
MORNING WITH COLD WEATHER HEADLINES. THE REST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WILL PASS QUIETLY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THAT POWERHOUSE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. BECAUSE OF THAT, SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS MUCH MORE PRIMED TO BE A REAL WARMUP THAN THE
STUNTED WARMING TREND WE'VE SEEN THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES COULD
RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS MONDAY.
ONE OF THE MAJOR LONG-TERM FORECAST QUESTIONS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION FROM EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE STJ AT SOME POINT DURING THAT PERIOD,
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A BIG DRIVER OF A LOT OF OUR PRECIPITATION
EVENTS IN THE LAST 2 OR 3 YEARS. THE SIGNAL IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AND
IS BEING DAMPED OUT BY SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE PATTERN. IF ANYTHING, THIS DOES LOOK LIKE IT WOULD BE A
WARMER SYSTEM THAN THE ONE WE JUST ENCOUNTERED, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IN LIEU OF SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWNS ARE
OBVIOUS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE WIND DECREASES AFTER 00-2Z. THE COLD FRONT
HAS YET TO REACH DUA, SO A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 21Z.
LOW CLOUDS, WITH MVFR CEILINGS, HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
A BROKEN CLOUD DECK MAY FORM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH A LIGHT THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING BY 12Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW IN OCCURRENCE, SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 18 35 7 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 39 16 44 8 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 20 44 13 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 40 17 45 7 / 0 0 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 34 13 31 0 / 10 0 0 10
DURANT OK 48 23 42 11 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
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