175
FXUS64 KOUN 300016
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 552 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.
- LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST/WESTERN OK, NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE HIGHS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED, WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT DIDN'T END UP
MATERIALIZING THIS MORNING, WILL ONCE AGAIN NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE
WEAKEST. FOR NOW ANY FOG APPEARS IT WOULD BE PATCHY AND OVERALL A
LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST AND SCATTERED CLOUDS PREVENT FULL
INSOLATION. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST, HELPING SEND A 1050 MB SURFACE HIGH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE DRY AIR SHUTS THINGS OFF RATHER QUICKLY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW APPEAR TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OK, BUT COULD
SEE FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL OK AS WELL.
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE GREATER IMPACT TO OUR AREA WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA WITH LOW TO MID
TEENS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. FACTORING IN BRISK NORTH
WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM NEAR -10 NORTH TO 0 TO 5
ABOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. EVEN WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY, CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SOME LOW 30S OUT
WEST.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THAT POWERHOUSE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. BECAUSE OF THAT, SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS MUCH MORE PRIMED TO BE A REAL WARMUP THAN THE
STUNTED WARMING TREND WE'VE SEEN THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES COULD
RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS MONDAY.
ONE OF THE MAJOR LONG-TERM FORECAST QUESTIONS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION FROM EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE STJ AT SOME POINT DURING THAT PERIOD,
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A BIG DRIVER OF A LOT OF OUR PRECIPITATION
EVENTS IN THE LAST 2 OR 3 YEARS. THE SIGNAL IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AND
IS BEING DAMPED OUT BY SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THE PATTERN. IF ANYTHING, THIS DOES LOOK LIKE IT WOULD BE A
WARMER SYSTEM THAN THE ONE WE JUST ENCOUNTERED, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IN LIEU OF SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWNS ARE
OBVIOUS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
NORTH BREEZY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
FOG AT SPS FRIDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION
IN THE TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 17 36 7 24 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 15 44 8 28 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 19 44 13 30 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 18 46 8 33 / 0 0 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 12 32 0 21 / 0 10 10 0
DURANT OK 22 43 12 30 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...23
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