977
FXUS64 KOUN 301149
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.
- LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST/WESTERN OK, NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD
THE OHIO AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RADAR DOES SHOW SOME
RELATIVELY LIGHT ECHOES IN THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE JET STREAK SHIFTING AROUND THE
WEST EDGE OF THE TROUGH, AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING. INITIALLY THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO START OFF AS
RAIN/SPRINKLES, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND THE MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW VERY LITTLE (IF ANY)
QPF, SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER
WEATHER AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WITH A MID 1040MB
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE
MID TEENS IN NORTH TEXAS. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BELOW
ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA APPROACHING NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS
IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
VALID.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW DISCUSSED IN THE NEAR TERM
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT NOW, THE
MODELS SHOW THE HUMIDITY TO BE SUFFICIENT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT IT SHOULD BE SNOW. SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS AXIS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO BE RATHER
NARROW HOWEVER. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS TO MAKE SURE WE
DON'T GET A SNEAKY TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE, ALTHOUGH RIGHT
NOW THAT LOOKS LIKE A LOW-ENOUGH PROBABILITY EVENT THAT WE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND JUST MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA. SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A LATE ARRIVAL AND THE MODELS IN
GENERAL HAVE BACKED OFF ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE PERCEPTION WILL BE.
CURRENT NBM CONFINES 20% OR HIGHER POPS TO AREAS EAST OF ROUGHLY
A SHAWNEE TO MADILL LINE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT
LOOKING AT THE DYNAMIC ENSEMBLE-BASED SCENARIOS. OF COURSE SOME
INDIVIDUAL RUNS LIKE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEP SOME POTENTIAL
FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND WE WILL STILL HAVE A FEW
DAYS TO BETTER JUDGE THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
THE SMALLER PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT LOOKS REASONABLE OVERALL RIGHT
NOW.
OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK IS FOR NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME, WE DO NOT SEE A
DAY WITH AN OVERLAP OF LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS TO RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
TERMINALS KPNC & KSWO SHOULD STAY IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST
THROUGH 19Z WHILE MOST OF OUR REMAINING TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN
A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. A WEATHER SYSTEM DIGGING
THROUGH THE U.S. GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN 22-02Z WITH INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10-15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20
KTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOWERING CEILINGS TO AN MVFR CATEGORY
ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS STARTING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS
EARLY AS 20Z THEN MOST OF OUR REMAINING TERMINALS AFTER 01Z. LIGHT
SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KSPS
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW (10%) AT THIS TIME TO BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS TERMINAL KSPS WHICH
HAS A 30% PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES BETWEEN
01-06Z. A NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED LOW-LEVEL JET MAY PRODUCE SOME
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (MAINLY SPEED VS DIRECTION) AT FLIGHT LEVEL
020 FT BY 04Z ACROSS FOUR OF OUR TERMINALS IN CENTRAL &
NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 37 8 24 16 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 45 8 29 15 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 45 14 30 18 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 49 8 34 19 / 0 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 32 0 21 12 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 43 11 30 17 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
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